Source: cleanenergynews.ihsmarkit.com
India intends to quintuple the size of a subsidy scheme for domestic solar photovoltaic (PV) module makers, pushing forward with the country's Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-reliant India) strategy for decarbonizing its economy.
To help counter climate change, the world's third largest GHG emitter is aiming to have 500 GW of renewable energy capacity installed by 2030—including at least 280 GW of solar—before reaching emissões líquidas-zero by 2070.
"This decarbonization strategy opens up huge employment opportunities and will take the country on a sustainable development path," Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the country's parliament in o discurso do orçamento anual 1 February.
No orçamento de abril de 2022 a março de 2023, Nova Délhi alocaria mais Rs 19.500 crore (2,61 bilhões) ao programa de incentivo vinculado à produção (PLI) para promover a fabricação doméstica de módulos fotovoltaicos, disse Sitharaman.
O PLI, que começou com Rs 4.500 crore (600 milhões) no último orçamento anual, oferece subsídios para plantas modulares selecionadas com base em suas vendas, qualidade do produto e conteúdo local.
IHS Markit estimates 80 percent -90 percent of India's solar components are imported, with China the main supplier. Government figures show India currently has annual production capacity of just 2.5 GW for PV cells and 9-10 GW for modules.
But the initial PLI budget will help drive the expansion of India-based manufacturers, according to the National Investment Promotion Facilitation Agency (NIPFA), and India's capacity of integrated module plants that can convert wafer-ingots to modules is expected to chegar a 10 GW by the end of March 2023.
The government agency expects India's annual module manufacturing capacity to expand by 30-35 GW between 2021 and 2025, in part driven by strong demand and policy incentives.
New Delhi is hoping to generate employment opportunities and attract foreign investment as a result of expanding the PV manufacturing sector, said Amit Manohar, especialista em investimentos do NIPFA.
"After a decade of innovation and cost reductions, the solar energy sector has evolved to a major source of energy, and it could potentially serve 30 percent or more of India's electricity demand by 2030," Manohar said.
Estratégia Atmanirbhar Bharat
Since 2020, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been promoting the Atmanirbhar Bharat strategy in several sectors—including renewables—to boost domestic manufacturing capacity in a post-COVID recovery.
No orçamento de abril de 2021 a março de 2022, Nova Delhi injetou Rs 1,000 crore (133 milhões) na Solar Energy Corporation of India e Rs 1.500 crore (200 milhões) na Agência Indiana de Desenvolvimento de Energia Renovável. As entidades são responsáveis pela execução de vários programas de incentivo- patrocinados pelo governo central.
Desde abril de 2021, apenas as empresas em uma lista totalmente-indiana aprovada de fabricantes de módulos podem participar de licitações de energia solar patrocinadas pelo governo central.
Além disso, o governo planeja impor uma taxa alfandegária básica de 40% sobre módulos solares importados e 25% sobre células a partir de abril deste ano.
Kashish Shah, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, suggested the policy initiatives' effects are likely to be compounded by problemas da cadeia de suprimentos in the global PV industry. "Module manufacturing in India has never been more viable," Shah disse last December.
Com os fortes sinais de política, algumas grandes empresas indianas anunciaram grandes programas de investimento em energia renovável que colocam um forte foco na energia solar.
Tendo estabelecido a meta de construir 100 GW de capacidade solar até 2030, a Reliance Industries disse no ano passado que lançará uma planta de painéis fotovoltaicos integrados em Jamnagar depois de adquirir o REC Group por 771 milhões. Espera-se que a usina tenha uma capacidade inicial de 4 GW por ano antes de aumentar para 10 GW.
In January, Reliance, India's largest publicly traded company by market capitalization, announced iniciativas de investimento renovável totaling Rs 595,500 crore (80 billion), and a substantial proportion of the money will be used to develop manufacturing facilities for PV modules, electrolyzers, batteries, fuel cells, as well as hydrogen and low-carbon energy projects in Gujarat over the next 10-15 years.
Rival conglomerate Grupo Adani plans to invest 50 billion to 70 billion in decarbonization projects in the next decade, including 20 billion in renewable energy generation. It aims to have a solar manufacturing capacity of 2 GW per annum by the end of March 2023.
While the government's policies are prompting more investment in domestic manufacturing, IHS Markit Renewable Analyst Ankita Chauhan warned of short-term disruptions to solar installations in the country.
"Current domestic manufacturing is not sufficient to meet the domestic demand, and it may take another three to five years to build it up," said Chauhan, adding that the policies favoring Indian manufacturers will push up overall costs, and restrict vendor choices for procurement and project timelines.
Mostre-me o dinheiro
No último orçamento anual, o governo indiano também disse que melhorará a reciclagem, promoverá a agrofloresta, adotará uma política de troca de baterias para veículos elétricos onde as redes de carregamento não forem viáveis e substituirá 5% a 7% do carvão usado em usinas termelétricas por pellets de biomassa, entre outras medidas de descarbonização.
Sitharaman said India will issue sovereign green bonds in the coming fiscal year to fund "green infrastructure" in the public sector, without elaborating.
Official data showed India had 150.5 GW of renewable capacity installed in November when large hydropower projects were taken into account. This means annual capacity additions of 40-50 GW will be required to meet the government's 500 GW target by 2030.
"On a very conservative capital funding calculation the investment required for achieving the target is approximately 210 billion," said Manohar, adding that both public and private stakeholders need to contribute.
Em nota publicada no mês passado, os analistas da IHS Markit estimaram que a Índia precisará de mais de 28 bilhões em investimentos anuais para atingir a meta de 2030, em comparação com um gasto médio de 7 bilhões nos últimos cinco anos.
"Project developers are tapping international capital markets to access low-cost financing, but the government needs to improve regulatory transparency, introduce a uniform green taxonomy, and provide targeted interventions to improve access to low-cost international capital," the note said.
Além de investir em capacidade de geração de baixo-carbono, pesquisadores do Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, nos EUA, disseram que as partes interessadas indianas precisarão investir 40 bilhões em 63 GW de armazenamento de bateria para garantir a estabilidade da rede.
Still, they believe renewable expansion will be the cheapest overall option in meeting India's rising electricity demand.
"Dramatic cost reductions over the last decade for wind, solar, and battery storage technologies position India to leapfrog to a more flexible, robust, and sustainable power system for delivering affordable and reliable power to serve demand that will nearly double by 2030," they said in um estudo published last December.
